Ayawaso East NDC primary will test Mussa Dankwah’s credibility – Baba Jamal

Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria Baba Jamal, who is vying to be a Parliamentary candidate for the NDC in the Ayawaso East by-election, has expressed optimism of winning.

Reacting to a poll by pollster Mussa Dankwah, which has tipped Baba Jamal’s competitor to win, Mr Jamal said the credibility of Mussa Dankwah will be tested in the primary.

“I am very hopeful of victory,” he told journalists.

When his attention was drawn to the polls by Mussa Dankwah, he said, “Forget about that polls. The credibility of Mussa Dankwah will be determined by this election.”

Meanwhile, in a Facebook post, Mussa Dankwah said “In a bid to destroy data science, I hear things are happening gidi gidi. What a shame for a social democratic party, but the people will vote their conscience.”

Global InfoAnalytics carried out two polls in Ayawaso East. The first poll was conducted between 6-10 January 2026 (not published), and the final poll was conducted between 4-5 February 2026 (published).

In the first poll, Hon Baba Jamal lead Hajia Amina Adams 47% to 32% among all voters and 46% to 36% among NDC voters. So, what happened to cause his collapse in the poll, slipping from 47% to now 32% among all voters, a drop of 15 points and from 46% to 34% among NDC voters, a drop of 12 points now?

Hajia Amina Adams saw an astronomical rise 32% to 58%, representing an increase of 26 points among all voters and a rise from 34% to 61% among NDC voters, a rise of 27 points.

Wrong messaging and miscalculation of how Ayawaso East Muslims were going to take the Iddah issue. Voters took dwelling on the issue of Iddah as an attempt to blackmail the widow. 74% Muslims and 72% sunnah does not mean Ayawaso East is a constituency for Islamic conservatives, they are liberals.

Actually, nearly 43% of voters of the constituency who were voting for Hajia Amina Adams, according to the polls were voting for her because of how they felt they has been treating. You need to check if your campaign message is resonating well with voters, if not, just drop it and find a new message. But how do you know if you are not polling as you go progress with your campaign? Win an election is not just an art but also a science backed by data.

Again, it is the question of misunderstanding voters’ demography and deploying the strong strategy. Lack of data to guide the campaign ended up misguiding the campaign.

Background

The Electoral Commission (EC) set the by-election on Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

The decision follows the unfortunate death of the Member of Parliament (MP) for the Ayawaso East Constituency, Mahama Naser Toure, which has rendered the seat vacant.

A statement signed and issued by the Deputy Chairman of the EC in charge of operations said it was also in accordance with Article 112 (5) of the Constitution, as amended.

Global InfoAnalytics carried out two polls in Ayawaso East. The first poll was conducted between 6-10 January 2026 (not published), and the final poll was conducted between 4-5 February 2026 (published).

In the first poll, Hon Baba Jamal lead Hajia Amina Adams 47% to 32% among all voters and 46% to 36% among NDC voters. So, what happened to cause his collapse in the poll, slipping from 47% to now 32% among all voters, a drop of 15 points and from 46% to 34% among NDC voters, a drop of 12 points now?

Hajia Amina Adams saw an astronomical rise 32% to 58%, representing an increase of 26 points among all voters and a rise from 34% to 61% among NDC voters, a rise of 27 points.

Wrong messaging and miscalculation of how Ayawaso East Muslims were going to take the Iddah issue. Voters took dwelling on the issue of Iddah as an attempt to blackmail the widow. 74% Muslims and 72% sunnah does not mean Ayawaso East is a constituency for Islamic conservatives, they are liberals.

Actually, nearly 43% of voters of the constituency who were voting for Hajia Amina Adams, according to the polls were voting for her because of how they felt they has been treating. You need to check if your campaign message is resonating well with voters, if not, just drop it and find a new message. But how do you know if you are not polling as you go progress with your campaign? Win an election is not just an art but also a science backed by data.

Again, it is the question of misunderstanding voters’ demography and deploying the strong strategy. Lack of data to guide the campaign ended up misguiding the campaign.